Support for the Liberals is at its highest since party leader Simona Mohamsson shifted course this spring and agreed to give the Sweden Democrats ministerial posts, according to the latest voter barometer from Dagens Nyheter and Ipsos. For a party that has spent the year fighting for survival, the reading offers a rare piece of encouraging news, though a closer look complicates the story.
The Liberals remain below the four percent threshold needed to enter parliament, with support of 2.3 percent, one percentage point higher than in June. The broader pattern is less flattering: the party has fluctuated around two percent all year, and a single point of movement does little to change its precarious position.
Across the blocs, the gap between the right-wing coalition and the opposition is narrowing slightly, from 9.5 percentage points in June to 6.8. The figures are described as uncertain, the product of small shifts rather than a decisive swing, but according to Nicklas Kallebring at Ipsos there is a slight tailwind in public opinion for the governing Tido parties.
Within the right, the balance of power remains striking. The Sweden Democrats are still the largest party in the bloc at 19.3 percent, ahead of the Moderates at 17.9, a reminder of how central the once-shunned party has become to the government’s arithmetic.
That context is what makes the Liberals’ modest uptick so consequential for Mohamsson. Her decision to bring the Sweden Democrats into government was a calculated risk for a party built on a very different liberal tradition. The new numbers suggest the gamble has not yet backfired at the ballot box, but with the Liberals still short of the threshold, it remains far from clear that the strategy will be enough to keep them in parliament at all.
